Score Confidence Interval

What is Score Confidence Interval?

Confidence intervals acknowledge that trust scores are estimates based on limited data with inherent uncertainty. A score of 750 with a 95% confidence interval of ±30 means we can be 95% confident the agent's true performance level falls between 720 and 780. Wider intervals indicate more uncertainty, often seen with thin-file agents or those with volatile performance.

Confidence intervals help consumers make risk-appropriate decisions. For critical applications, users might require both high scores and narrow confidence intervals, ensuring both quality and certainty. Intervals naturally narrow as more performance data accumulates, reflecting increasing confidence in score accuracy.

Example

How Signet addresses this

Signet calculates confidence intervals for all trust scores, particularly important during provisional scoring periods. The SID system exposes confidence intervals alongside scores, enabling integration partners to make informed decisions about acceptable uncertainty levels for their use cases.